Quotes from Richard Heinberg’s (2007) Peak Everything. Waking Up to the Century of Declines.
Introduction
The world is overwhelmingly dependent on oil for transportation, agriculture, plastics, and chemicals; thus a lengthy process of adjustment will be required. Fossil fuels supply about 85% of the world’s total energy.
In the course of the present century we will see an end to growth and a commencement of decline in all of these parameters: population, grain production (total and per capita), uranium production, climate stability, fresh water availability per capita, arable land in agricultural production, wild fish harvests, yearly extraction of some metals and minerals (including copper, platinum, sliver, gold, and zinc).
These declines will affect various parameters of social welfare: per-capita consumption levels, economic growth; easy, cheap, quick mobility; technological change and invention, political stability.
We are at the beginning of a period of overall societal contraction….population crashes and die-offs.
The only real question is whether societies will contract and simplify intelligently or in an uncontrolled, chaotic fashion.
None of this is easy to contemplate. Nor can this information easily be discussed in polite company: it is not likely to win votes, lead to a better job…most people turn off and tune out. The result: a general, societal pattern of denial.
Some not so-good things will also peak this century: economic inequality, environmental destruction, greenhouse gas emissions. (Whether as a result of voluntary reductions in fossil fuel consumption or societal collapse.)
In the decades just prior to the 20th century, the average income in the world’s wealthiest country was about ten times more than that in the poorest; now it is over forty-five times more. The richest one percent of people now controls 40% of the world’s wealth, while the richest two percent control fully half.
Some good things that are not at or near their historic peaks: Community, personal autonomy, satisfaction from honest work well done, intergenerational solidarity, cooperation, leisure time, happiness, ingenuity, artistry, beauty of the built environment, leisure time.
Addressing the economic, social, and political problems ensuing from the various looming peaks is no mere palliative and will require enormous collective effort.
People will need to believe in an eventual reward for what will amount to many years of hard sacrifice. People will not willingly accept the new message of “less, slower, and smaller,” unless they have new goals toward which to aspire.
We are at the brink of a collapse worse than any in history.
The world is full of crises demanding our attention–from wars to pollution, malnutrition, land mines, human rights abuses, and soaring cancer rates. Globally, there are two problems whose potentially consequences far outweight all others: Climate Change and energy resource depletion. Our efforts will be much more effective if directed at their (our laundry list of environmental and social problems) common root–that is, if we end our dependence on fossil fuels.
My thesis: many problems rightly deserve attention, but the problem of our dependence on fossil fuels is central to human survival, and so long as that dependence continues to any significant extent we must make its reduction the centerpiece of all our collective efforts–whether they are efforts to feed ourselves, resolve conflicts, or maintain a functioning economy.
Take the red pill and see the world beyond the Matrix: the very fabric of modern life is woven from illusion–thousands of illusions, in fact.
Emphasis on the need for dramatic, rapid reform in our global food system.
On Technology, Agriculture, and the Arts
In the U.S., as recently as 1850, domesticated animals were responsible for over 2/3 of the physical work supporting the economy. Between 70 and 90 percent of the populations of early civilizations had to work at farming in order to provide enough of a surplus to support the rest of the social edifice, including the warrior, priestly, and administrative classes.
Human societies are best classified on the basis of their member’s means of obtaining food.
A focus on energy as the determining factor in social evolution…with that shift has also come the sense that resource limits will eventually drive basic cultural change–rather than moral persuasion, mass enlightenment, or some new invention.
Preserve whatever is beautiful, sane, and intelligent. That includes scientific and cultural knowledge, and examples of human achievement in the arts.
In short, we created unprecedented abundance while ignoring the long-term consequences of our actions. …The Greeks, Babylonians, and Romans all destroyed soil and habitat in their mania to feed growing urban populations, and collapsed as a result.
The Key: More Farmers!
The need for a minimum of 40 to 50 million additional farmers as oil and gas availability declines… a transition that must occur over the next 20-30 years, and that must begin now.
Universities and community colleges have both the opportunity and responsibility to quickly develop programs in small-scale ecological farming methods.
A sign of what is to come, as we return by necessity to handcraft but without skill or cultural memory to guide us.
Workers will incorporate no or minimal fossil fuels, either as raw material or as energy source, in production processes. This is the defining condition for all that follows, and its implications will be profound.
On Nature’s Limits and the Human Condition
Collapse is a frequent if not universal fate of complex societies. It is the common destiny of societies that ignore resource constraints. It is a reduction in social complexity.
People who live a civilized life are like birds in a cage. As long as we stay within well-defined social bounds, we are rewarded with cheap food, as well as comfort and convenience in a myriad of forms: television, shopping malls, glossy magazines. We have our seed cup, perch, mirror, and toys. What more could a bird–or human–want.
And so here we are today, in a human world dominated by money, news sports, entertainment, employment, and investment–a world in a which nature appears as something peripheral and mostly unnecessary. Nature is merely a pile of resources.
The End of one Era, the Beginning of Another
Nations will simply burn whatever is available in order to keep their economies from crashing.
Energy is essential to the maintenance of agriculutre, transportation, communication, and just about everything else that makes up the modern global economy.
There are only two kinds of solutions: substitution strategies (finding replacement energy sources) and conservation strategies (using energy more efficiently or just doing without). The former are politically preferable, as they do not require behavioral change or sacrifice. The least palatable option, from a political standpoint, is also the quickest and cheapest–doing without.
The task of clearing up all past and future nuclear wastes will require more energy than the industry can generate from the remaining ore.
Strong motivation is required in order for the people of the world to undertake the enormous personal and social sacrifices required in order to quickly and dramatically reduce their fossil fuel dependency.
The courage to tell a truth that few policy makers want to hear: energy efficiency and curtailment will almost certainly have to be the world’s dominant responses to both climate change and peak oil.
If we really want to change the world we should change our heads first.
By now, the American governmental-corporate system is far too large and complex, and has far too much momentum behind it, to permit a fundamental change in direction.
The nation, now hallucinating uncontrollably from toxic exposure to Fox New, is in debt to the point that no conceivable decision made today will prevent a devastating implosion of the US economy, especially in view of the impending oil and gas peaks.
The American dream is going down, yet we still have some control over how it goes down. In the decades ahead we will be going through hell. What we must do down is lay the groundwork for collective survival. We must build lifeboats.
Future???
- The government will become utterly fascist.
- There will be local uprisings and brutal crackdowns.
- The central government will collapse.
- It will be called “The Die-off,” or “The Cleansing,” defined by wars, epidemics, famines.
What people really need is some basic commonsense information and advice, somebody to tell them the truth–their way of life is coming to an end–and to offer them some sensible collective survival strategies.
Learn how to grow your own food. A frustration will be the lack of good seeds… Very few people know anything about saving seeds from one season to the next, so existing seed stocks will be depleated very quickly.
Learn what’s important in life: good soil, viable seeds, clean water, unpolluted air, and friends you can count on.
There is an overwhelming likelihood of a crash of titantic proportions. This should be glaringly obvious to everyone.
An implicit belief comon among ruling elites–it is the duty of wise leaders to cloak their policies in potent patriotic and religious symbols and myths in order to galvanize the internal ethical imperatives of the masses. In other words, lies are not only good and necessary, they are the very foundation of responsible statecraft.
We are at war with nature and future generations.
A rapid surge toward collective self-limitation might come about.
To be successful, such an effort would require the enthusiastic participation of the advertising, public relations, and entertainment industries, as well as organized religions and all major political institutions.
Posted by publius2012 
Posted by publius2012 
Posted by publius2012 
