Peak Everything
Waking up to the Century of Declines
Richard Heinberg © 2007
Thesis: many problems rightly deserve attention, but the problem of our dependence on fossil fuels is central to human survival, and so as long as that dependence continues to any significant extent we must make its reduction the centerpiece of all our collective efforts — whether they are efforts to feed ourselves, resolve conflicts, or maintain a functioning economy.
Premise: There is an overwhelming likelihood of a crash of titanic proportions.
Societies need to contract and simplify intelligently.
The primary goal is a reduction in fossil fuel consumption.
Befenfits: Community, personal autonomy, satisfaction from honest work well done, intergenerational solidarity, cooperation, leisure time, happiness, ingenuity, artistry, beauty of the build environment
A need for dramatic, rapid reform in our global food system.
The Key: More Farmers!
In America in 1900, nearly 40% of the population farmed; the current proportion is close to one percent. This implies the need for a minimum of 40 to 50 million additional farmers in the next 20 to 30 years.
Develop programs in small-scale ecological farming methods.
Post-hydrocarbon Style:
1. Incorporate no or minimal fossil fuels, either as raw material or as energy source, in production processes.
2. Construction will depend on muscle power and handcraft.
3. Pride in workmanship
4. The use of natural materials, which will become more rare and expensive. Thus, workers will inevitably develop more respect for natural materials.
5. Durability will be a required attribute of all products.
6. Reparability will also be requisite. The average person will need to be able to fix anything that breaks.
7. There will be an enduring artistic quality to all design rather than a nonsensical and counterproductive rapid changes of fashion and style. Incorporate themes from nature into products
8. Incorporate occasional ironic or nostalgic comments into artistic output.
9. There are universal principles of harmonty and proportion that perennially reappear.
10. New aesthetic will by necessity emphasize leanness and simplicity, and will eschew superfluous decoration. (Zen)
Emissions activists appeal to an ethical impulse to avert future harm to the environment and human society , while the Peak Oil issue appeals to a more immediate concern for self-preservation—which is unquestionably the stronger motive, which will certainly be required in order for people to undertake the enormous personal and social sacrifices required in order to quickly and dramatically reduce their fossil fuel dependency.
We must lay the groundwork for collective survival. We must build lifeboats.
People need some basic commonsense information and advice, somebody to tell them the truth—our way of life is coming to an end—and to offer them some sensible collective survival strategies.
• Learn how to grow our own food.
• Collect high-quality seeds and know how to save seeds from one season to the next.
• Treasure what’s important in life: good soil, viable seeds, clean water, unpolluted air, friends you can count on.
Chaos theory: small changes in initial conditions can lead to big changes in outcomes.
To be successful, an effort will require the enthusiastic participation of the advertising, public relations, and entertainment industries, as well as organized religions and all major political institutions.
Leaders will have to engage the non-rational aspects of mass consciousness by playing upon our shared needs for meaning and myth, using verbal voodoo to alter attitudes and behavior as rapidly as possible.
The most we can do is to harness the thrill that comes when language hits its mark by dramatically aiding our understanding, by using language skillfully to describe and persuade; and meanwhile to act in ways that are congruent with the ethical content of our words.